A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
